Some Pictures to Ponder

by Andrew Gillen

I found these pictures to be interesting. The first one shows the percent of the 25+ population with a bachelor's degree or higher, as a percent of the population with a high school degree or higher.


Source: Digest of Education Statistics 2008 Table 8, CCAP Calculations
Note: For the gaps between earlier data points, a linear relationship between the starting and end points was assumed.

For sixty years, one fifth of HS grads went on to get a Bachelor's. Starting in early 70s, that began to go up, at more or less the same rate for the next four decades (with the only really noticeable pause occurring in the late 80s/early 90s). We are now at an all time high of 34%.

With the caveat that much of the early years were extrapolated, I'm stunned by the consistency of the figure in the first half the century. Supposedly very important events in the history of higher ed, like the original GI bill, do not appear to have noticeable impacts.

Assuming that the historical trend held, the second picture shows bachelor's or higher attainment broken down by source (ie, up to .2*HS attainment is attributed to "HS improvements", anything above to "college improvements")


Source: Digest of Education Statistics 2008 Table 8, CCAP Calculations
Note: For the gaps between earlier data points, a linear relationship between the starting and end points was assumed. HS attainment times .2 was classified as "HS Improvement" with the remainder classified as "College Improvement."

Virtually all of the increase in higher ed attainment prior to 1970 can be credited to improvements in the high school graduation rates. However, those improvements have plateaued. While colleges have taken over as the driver of higher attainment, given complaints about watering down content, how much further can they go?